Latin America, Caribbean fleet to double by 2040

Airbus Market Forecast foresees 2,460 new aircraft over next two decades

Airbus recently released its 2021-2040 Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the Latin America and Caribbean region, offering an overview of aircraft demand, air travel and traffic flow projections over the next 20 years, as well as macroeconomic analysis.

The region’s passenger traffic will multiply by a factor of 2.3, yielding an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent, driven primarily by continued gains in domestic traffic markets (4.2 percent CAGR*). Additionally, intra-regional (excluding domestic) and international traffic between Latin America and the rest of the world will both grow at 3.5 percent per year.

The passenger traffic increase will be led by the region’s expanding middle class, forecast to reach 500 million by 2040, or two-thirds of the total population by that time. As a result, trips per capita are expected to triple in Chile and double in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico.

Consequently, the region’s in-service fleet is slated to nearly double to 2,820 in-service aircraft in 2040, from 1,440 aircraft today. Over the next 20 years the region will require 2,460 new passenger and freighter aircraft, of which more than half will help meet rising demand, while 44 percent will support the replacement of older and less fuel efficient aircraft, improving the CO2 efficiency of the fleets operated in the region.

The majority of the new aircraft will be concentrated in the small category of aircraft (2,170 units, 90 percent), while the medium and large categories will represent 10 percent of the total supply of new aircraft (190 and 100 medium and large aircraft, respectively).

To fly this growing fleet, Latin America and the Caribbean will need 33,000 new pilots and 43,000 technicians to be trained over the next 20 years in Latin America, more than tripling the size of the Latin America services market to $19 billion in 2040 from $5.5 billion in 2021.

Read the full GMF for 2021-2040 here.

*CAGR: compound annual growth rate 

For more information contact:

Damien STERNCHUSS
Head of Airline Marketing
damien.sternchuss@airbus.com