Market Trends
Close to 2,600 new aircraft needed in Latin America the Caribbean by 2043
The latest edition of the Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) for Latin America and the Caribbean for the next 20 years projects a passenger and freighter fleet growth from 1,560 in 2023 to 2,670 aircraft, among which 2,570 will be fulfilled by new aircraft deliveries and 100 will remain from today’s fleet. Notably, the predominance of typically single-aisle aircraft will continue to drive the demand for new aircraft, accounting for 90% of the total new deliveries, or 2,300 aircraft, while the typically widebody will represent the remaining 10%, or 270 new units.
According to the 2024 GMF, the demand for new aircraft in the region will be the driven by a growing population over the next 20 years (+74 million inhabitants), and particularly the rise of the middle class (+87 million inhabitants) representing two-thirds of the total population by 2043, and a continuously growing urban population, the second largest in the world. In addition, the average GDP will continue to grow at 2.9% CAGR*, slightly above the world average for the same period.
In terms of flows, the passenger traffic forecast between 2023 and 2027 continues to benefit from the recovery of the two years lost during the pandemic with a solid 5.5% CAGR on average. From 2027 to 2043, the mid-to-long-term traffic projections will then reconnect with pre-covid trends and pace at 3.6% CAGR globally for the region, mainly boosted by the domestic markets. The most mature international markets between Latin America and the US and Europe will also continue to grow but at a slightly lower pace, while today’s unserved intra-regional markets will show a solid 3.5% average growth. The global rise in traffic will be translated into yearly trips expected to increase from 0.48 per year per capita in 2023 to 0.94 annual trips per capita in 2043. Travel rates per capita will double in Peru and more than double in Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
Finally, with the region’s fleet set to almost double by 2043, the workforce will be key. The latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) 2024-2043 projects there will be a cumulative need for an additional 136,000 professionals over the next 20 years, including 46,000 new technicians, 36,000 new pilots and 54,000 new cabin crew members.
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
For more information contact:
Damien Sternchuss
VP, Head of Airline Marketing Latin America & Caribbean
damien.sternchuss@airbus.com
