Airbus Global Market Forecast shows a demand for 39,000 new aircraft by 2040

Airbus leveraged its presence at the Dubai Airshow to present its first Global Market Forecast (GMF) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

By 2040, Airbus foresees the need for approximately 39,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft, of which 15,250 will replace older and less fuel-efficient aircraft.

The majority of the demand, or 29,700 new aircraft, will stem from the Small aircraft category that features the A220 and A320 Families. And Latin America is no exception -- with 88 percent of the 2,460 new aircraft required over the next 20 years in the region slated to be made up of Small aircraft.

Likewise, Airbus projects globally 5,300 new aircraft in the Medium segment, which includes the A321XLR and the A330neo, as well as 4,000 new Large aircraft, such as the A350, will be needed to satisfy demand over the next 20 years. In the region, the Medium and Large categories represent 190 (8 percent) and 100 airplanes (4 percent), respectively.

These aircraft will primarily serve a global passenger market set to grow at 3.9 percent per year thanks to expanding economies and commerce (including tourism) and a rising middle class, who are increasingly likely to fly.

On the cargo side, e-commerce-boosted express freight is expected to grow at 4.7 percent per year while general cargo, representing three quarters of the total market, shows an annual 2.7 percent growth. Consequently, over the next two decades, Airbus foresees a need for 2,440 airplanes for the freighter market, including conversions, while new-build aircraft demand account for 880.

Additionally, the Services market shows an increasing need for commercial aviation services and personnel - some 550,000 new pilots and 710,000 highly skilled technicians will be needed through 2040.

Click here to learn more about our GMF forecast.

For more information contact:
Damien Sternchuss
Head of Airline Marketing, Latin America & the Caribbean
damien.sternchuss@airbus.com